Climate change and its influence on water systems increases the cost of electricity system decarbonization

Dr. Sakharov: Well, hydropower plays a critical role as a highly flexible and dispatchable generation source in the U.S. energy system. If we anticipate a decline in hydropower output, as suggested in this study (I recommend reading it in whole), the implications extend beyond generation shortfalls. Balancing the grid would require either substantial investments in energy storage technologies such as PSH (pumped storage hydropower), advanced battery systems, or even extravagant hydrogen-based solutions, simultaneously maximizing demand-side management through smart grid technologies and distributed generation.

It’s important to remember that the potential for building new large-scale HPP projects on the U.S. mainland is quite limited. Most suitable sites have already been utilized, and environmental or social concerns often prevent further development. However, there remains significant opportunity to modernize existing facilities and expand PSH projects, which are critical for dispatchable capacity and, wider, grid flexibility.

New Study Warns of Future Hydropower Declines and Growing Grid Challenges

A recent study published in Nature Communications warns that plans to achieve zero emissions on the Western U.S. grid by 2050 significantly underestimate the challenges posed by climate change and rising energy demand. Researchers combined detailed water and electricity system models to evaluate the Western Interconnection grid, factoring in climate impacts on hydropower generation and regional energy demand.

Key Findings:

1. Hydropower output in the region could decline by up to 23% by 2050 due to reduced water availability.

2. Electricity demand is projected to increase by 2%, excluding additional loads from emerging technologies like data centers or widespread electrification.

3. To maintain reliability and meet decarbonization goals, the region may need to build up to 139 GW of new generation capacity by 2050, nearly three times California’s peak demand.

4. This expansion could result in an extra $150 billion in infrastructure costs.

Implications:

The study underscores the need for advanced grid planning models that account for climate change, water availability, and rising energy demands. It highlights that hydropower, often viewed as a cornerstone of clean energy, may not remain as reliable in the face of prolonged droughts and changing water patterns.

Again, here is a link to the article.